THE ZOGBY/LEAR CENTER SURVEY FINDS
THIS IS A “CENTER-LEFT” COUNTRY
Read Marty Kaplan’s Center-Right Hype vs. Center-Left Data in the Huffington Post.
A rousing debate about whether this country leans to the right or the left has clogged the blogosphere and cable TV as 2008 comes to a close. Sadly, very little data is cited in these often virulent exchanges. In order to answer the question, “Is this a center-right or a center-left nation?” the Lear Center crunched the numbers from a survey conducted in August 2008, with Zogby International, which diagnosed the ideological profile of respondents. Here’s what we found:
Survey methodology
The Norman Lear Center and Zogby International conducted an extensive national survey examining political beliefs and entertainment preferences. The online survey was conducted August 19–28, 2008, including 3,167 adults nationwide and carrying a margin of error of +/– 1.8 percentage points. Using statistical clustering analysis, we created a political typology based on how respondents evaluated 42 statements about political values. The typology revealed three significant clusters of respondents: “reds,” as we decided to call them, make up 41% of the national sample, while “blues” comprise 34% and “purples” 24%. The same respondents were asked about their preferred leisure-time activities and their favorite radio and TV shows, Web sites, movies, games and sports.
What sets our survey apart?
The Zogby/Lear Center Survey typology reveals the ideological terrain of the United States in a way that no other poll does. Most surveys ask respondents their party identification and their candidate preferences; the result is poll after poll describing a nation essentially split in two, with five to ten percent “undecided.” Respondents to this survey also divided into two large groups when asked about the candidate they’d vote for (46% Obama, 46% McCain, 4% someone else, 4% not sure). But by allowing respondents also to weigh in on a wide variety of social and political issues, the Zogby/Lear Center Survey uncovers a nation split not in two, but rather in three. A full 24% of respondents did not align with the political beliefs and values of Reds, who could be considered “conservative,” or Blues, who could be labeled “liberal.” And party identification – especially the Independent moniker – is less revealing about an individual’s ideological profile than the Red/Blue/Purple typology groups. Twenty-three percent of Reds, 31% of Purples, and 18% of Blues identify as Independents.
Who are the purples? When we analyzed responses to the 42 statements in the typology, a statistically significant group of respondents emerged that did not cluster at either end of the ideological spectrum. These respondents composed a third group that leaned to the red end of the spectrum on eight issues, and leaned to the blue end of the spectrum on 12 issues (they were split 50/50 on one issue, whether religion should be left out of public life). Since this group inhabits the ideological middle-ground in our survey, it is reasonable to say that they represent the political center in this country.
So what does this center look like? First, this group accounts for almost 1 in 4 Americans (24%). Fifty-six percent of the time, a majority of these “centrists” endorsed the ideological statement embraced by Blues; 44% of the time they endorsed the Red statement.
Claim: The entire country leans left
Since our survey found that the largest ideological group has typically conservative beliefs (41%), one might assume that the ideological center in this country is to be found on the right side of the ideological spectrum. However, the size of one ideological group is not the best way to judge whether a majority of Americans tilt to the left or the right. In order to figure out whether we’re a “center-left” or “center-right” country, we needed to look at members of all the ideological groups in order to see how often they endorsed left or right wing positions. First, we looked at the 21 statements that had majority support from the entire sample (whether the respondents were Reds, Purples or Blues). We then calculated the average number of respondents who supported the Blue or liberal position and those who supported the Red or conservative position. The result? Fifty-two percent were Blue and 48% were Red.
There were two main reasons why Blue positions earned majority support, even though the Red group was the largest of the three. First, the Purple group held a Blue position more often than a Red one, by a margin of 19%. (They choose the Blue position 12 times, the Red position 8 times, and there was one tie) Secondly, Reds did not always endorse the Red position and Blues did not always choose the Blue position. There were four instances in which a majority of Reds endorsed the Blue position, and only one instance in which Blues endorsed a Red position (52% agreed that “Freedom is more important than equality.”) By taking into account “swing voters” within each ideological camp, we discovered that the ideological center in this country is a bit to the left of center.
Where does the country stand?
The graphs below portray the 21 statements that had majority support from the entire sample (whether the respondents were Reds, Purples or Blues). We then calculated the average number of respondents who supported the Blue or liberal position and those who supported the Red or conservative position.
Blue: Percentage of all respondents endorsing the blue position.
Red: Percentage of all respondents endorsing the red position.
Purple: Percentage of all respondents endorsing the blue or red position.
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Helping the Poor
It is our duty to help the less fortunate.
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Morality
Government is too involved in regulating morality.
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Corporate Trust
Corporations generally act without society’s best interest in mind. |
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Immigration
Foreigners who immigrate to America want the chance to work for a better life.
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Abortion Rights
Abortion is a private decision between a woman and her doctor.
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Foreign Policy
Our efforts in the War on Terror should focus on addressing anti-American sentiment in the world.
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Education
The only way to get better education in America is to invest in public education.
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Liberties vs. Security
Liberties are more important than security.
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Environment
The government needs to devote more resources to protecting the environment.
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Role of Religion
Religion should be left out of public life.
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Business Regulation
It is important for the government to regulate business.
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Social Security
Gov’t should allow people to invest their social security taxes in private accounts.
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American Dream
The government should not help everyone to achieve the American Dream.
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Gun Rights
The Constitution gives us the absolute right to bear arms.
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Taxes
All Americans would benefit from drastically reduced taxes.
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Constitution
The Constitution was meant to be read just as it is written.
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Marriage
Marriage should only be between one man and one woman.
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Affirmative Action
Affirmative Action rewards some groups at the expense of others.
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Evolution
Evolution should be just one part of the science curriculum in the schools.
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Gov’t Effectiveness
Government generally creates more problems than it solves.
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Freedom vs. Equality
Freedom is more important than equality.
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http://www.learcenter.org/html/projects/?&cm=zogby/centerleft
